Anyone know the max capacity for JFK airport?

[futurecity]

Hello,

Now that JFK is slot and capacity restricted, meaning a fixed max # of operations in/out of the airfield, what is the max pax capacity given full build out of terminals, etc?

The reason I ask is that I read that JFK was expected to be maxed out at 50million / year but that couldn't be, as it had 47million last year.

I'm concerned. As most slots will be accounted for, delta will no be able to grow a proper hub at JFK due to constraints and the fact that there are many international airlines and jetblue all taking up slots.

If the ammount of slots are all used, this means that new international entrants into the airport or growth of the existing international carriers will be curtailed also. Delta is looking at being constrained to a small/medium sized hub due to compition for slots from Jetblue and the internationals.

I don't see these airlines (delta, international carriers) flying into Newburgh as pioneers (given distance and lack of decent terminal/ground transit) nor Newark which is in the same situation with Continental dominating most slots.

It is well known that hubs survive on grouping everything into one airport, and that they don't work when fragmented btw different regional airports.. see London heathrow and Gatwick (the latter failed as a true BA hub and BA moved flights back into LHR)

It seems to me that there is no real option for creating economic development through airline growth in the NYC area in the decades to come due to such harsh constraints on capacity. The only option I see is if a new airport is built ( to add to the current 3 or replaces one) somwhere closer to the central core (manhattan).

Stewart is considered a reliever airport -- not a major jetport -- by the PA and NYDOT themselves...it was never intended to be a hub or international gateway. I feel the PA have shot themselves in the foot by not considering other options for future growth. Where will new international airlines who want to enter the NYC market go once all the slots have been taken at both EWR and JFK? That is what I'm worried about. NYC needs a megahub --- as it is now, there is no capacity. I believe that consolidating operations into 1 major airport (new) would allow for a real transfer hub similar to Atlanta/LHR/O'Hare and all the economic benefits that go with them....and NYC I believe needs to diversify its economy and aviation is a prime way to do so...look at the Persian Gulf for an example of what a major hub can accomplish, or even the benefit to Atlanta from Hartsfield.

[futurecity]

Anyone in the business know the deal w/ the projected maximum for JFK in terms of pax #? We know that operations # are now cemented b/c of slots.

I'm very interested in seeing how JFK will end up and what it will look like in 10 years in terms of pax figures and constraints in growth...this has important ramifications for the NYC area IMO as the feds have curtailed growth due to traffic congestion. Most people, from what I've read on various airline forums, agree that ATC/airspace upgrades would not fix this capacity issue, only new runways will. Most agree that building new runways at existing airports would be very difficult and the PA is not interested at this time. They also agree that KSWF/Islip/Westchester are not the answer due to locational, infrastrucutre or NIMBY issues and would fail to attract a significant critical mass of airline routes/destinations in order to attract enough pax (chicken/egg).

Some, on the forums have suggested a HSR link to stewart and forcing some carriers to relocate there (i.e, international foreign flag carriers) or to attract SWA there to stimulate growth (a new London stansted). However most belive foreign carriers would be reluctant to relocate there, therefore they surmise that Newburgh would be at best a low-cost base only and would not attract mainline carriers or provide much relief for JFK/EWR.

Others propose a greenfield site on a large navy weapons testing base (earl) in NJ if ever the navy was convinced to leave the land (not likely). Others suggest a new off-shore airport off the rockaways or off Bridgeport in the sound.

Any thoughts on these ideas that I've come across?

My personal opinion is that the port authority has bought Stewart to make a statement of action but really has no expectations that it will serve as true 4th airport nor provide enough relief to JFK/EWR/LGA -- I actually think they will keep it for a while, then quietly dump it and propose something else more worthwhile and comprehensive for the future of NYC air traffic when it become clear that capacity at the big 3 has just about run out.

Such bolder options that could be taken --> 1) Build a short runway on JFK's hanger/maintenance areas and relocate such activities to KSWF.
2) Build a small runway on the port of Newark (or over the brewery land) and provide short taxi-way links over the NJ turnpike. 3) HSR to stewart -- IMO not worth the investment due to difficulty in expanding that airport in the future (wetlands). 4) New mega hub off-shore to replace JFK or LGA.

Even with a Shinkansen rail line (not likley due to built up areas on the NEC), without future planning and serious thought about this issue, NYC will probably suffer the economic consequences due to loss of trade/commerce from the aviation industry...It will find itself stuck in time and have difficulty in keeping up with London (which is seriously going to be growing in capacity soon enough) or other world cities that believe the ability to grow aviation capacity is key to competing in the global marketplace. I think the problem of capacity is not being talked about enough and it will sneek up on the area -- by then the region may be quite far behind. The habit of not talking about anything until faced with the immediate problem has too often been the case in the past and it should not happen this time b/c it is too important.

Even if KSWF was built out, it wouldn't be enough with its current layout (cross runways) -- something else has to be looked at anyway because Stewart is surrounded by wetlands... It will forever be a 1.5 runway airport at best.

The greatest city in the USA has planned itself into a terrible bind in terms of aviation -- years ago was the time to plan for this current time...now if they procrastinate, the future will look even bleaker.

[Bronxbombers]

Anyone in the business know the deal w/ the projected maximum for JFK in terms of pax #? We know that operations # are now cemented b/c of slots.

I'm very interested in seeing how JFK will end up and what it will look like in 10 years in terms of pax figures and constraints in growth...this has important ramifications for the NYC area IMO as the feds have curtailed growth due to traffic congestion. Most people, from what I've read on various airline forums, agree that ATC/airspace upgrades would not fix this capacity issue, only new runways will. Most agree that building new runways at existing airports would be very difficult and the PA is not interested at this time. They also agree that KSWF/Islip/Westchester are not the answer due to locational, infrastrucutre or NIMBY issues and would fail to attract a significant critical mass of airline routes/destinations in order to attract enough pax (chicken/egg).

Some, on the forums have suggested a HSR link to stewart and forcing some carriers to relocate there (i.e, international foreign flag carriers) or to attract SWA there to stimulate growth (a new London stansted). However most belive foreign carriers would be reluctant to relocate there, therefore they surmise that Newburgh would be at best a low-cost base only and would not attract mainline carriers or provide much relief for JFK/EWR.

Others propose a greenfield site on a large navy weapons testing base (earl) in NJ if ever the navy was convinced to leave the land (not likely). Others suggest a new off-shore airport off the rockaways or off Bridgeport in the sound.

Any thoughts on these ideas that I've come across?

My personal opinion is that the port authority has bought Stewart to make a statement of action but really has no expectations that it will serve as true 4th airport nor provide enough relief to JFK/EWR/LGA -- I actually think they will keep it for a while, then quietly dump it and propose something else more worthwhile and comprehensive for the future of NYC air traffic when it become clear that capacity at the big 3 has just about run out.

Such bolder options that could be taken --> 1) Build a short runway on JFK's hanger/maintenance areas and relocate such activities to KSWF.
2) Build a small runway on the port of Newark (or over the brewery land) and provide short taxi-way links over the NJ turnpike. 3) HSR to stewart -- IMO not worth the investment due to difficulty in expanding that airport in the future (wetlands). 4) New mega hub off-shore to replace JFK or LGA.

Even with a Shinkansen rail line (not likley due to built up areas on the NEC), without future planning and serious thought about this issue, NYC will probably suffer the economic consequences due to loss of trade/commerce from the aviation industry...It will find itself stuck in time and have difficulty in keeping up with London (which is seriously going to be growing in capacity soon enough) or other world cities that believe the ability to grow aviation capacity is key to competing in the global marketplace. I think the problem of capacity is not being talked about enough and it will sneek up on the area -- by then the region may be quite far behind. The habit of not talking about anything until faced with the immediate problem has too often been the case in the past and it should not happen this time b/c it is too important.

Even if KSWF was built out, it wouldn't be enough with its current layout (cross runways) -- something else has to be looked at anyway because Stewart is surrounded by wetlands... It will forever be a 1.5 runway airport at best.

The greatest city in the USA has planned itself into a terrible bind in terms of aviation -- years ago was the time to plan for this current time...now if they procrastinate, the future will look even bleaker.I don't the know the capacity for JFK airport. I have been to JFK airport when I was 5 months old in June 1967,also during the 1970,s,1983,1986 and during October 1997. All you have to do is ask. Can you please ask someone else about the max capacity of JFK Airport?

[bonanzabucks]

Lots of blame has to go around for the congestion mess we face at all thee airports. The Port Authority for lacking the foresight to expand for the future and being caught on their toes when congestion reached crisis levels. The airlines for over scheduling. And the FAA/DOT for not regulating the industry, implementing archaic take-off and landing procedures in the area and most recently coming up with stupid proposals (i.e. slot auctions and congestion pricing) to "solve" the problem.

That being said, I'm not sure anyone really knows JFK's capacity. The FAA says it's 81 movements an hour, but that figure is based on using two parallel runways. It seems low as Heathrow is London uses only two runways, but its capacity is supposedly 85 movements an hour, or 480,000 a year. Then again, maybe the Brits have a better ATC system then we do here. Right now, JFK (and Newark) is capped at 83 movements an hour. I've talked to some JFK controllers and they say that more than 100 movements can be done if three or more runways are used at the same time.

JFK often uses three runways at the same time, but I haven't seen any studies for what the capacity would be with that. JFK has four runways and they could be used at the same time, so I'm sure that would increase capacity even more. The main problem with that, however, is that a four runway configuration would interfere with La Guardia traffic.

That's JFK's main problem. The airport has plenty of terminal capacity as we have about as many gates as ORD or even ATL, but La Guardia limits the airspace capacity. It's possible that NextGen might be able to enable efficient usage of JFK's four runways by allowing La Guardia and JFK traffic to fly closer together. If it doesn't, then the only solution would be to build more runways at the airport. You can reclaim land in Jamaica Bay for an additional runway. If the Japanese can do it by building an entire airport, we sure as hell can add another runway that way.

As for Stewart Airport, it's a joke of a solution. The British tried to encourage STN, LTN and LGW as alternatives for Heathrow, but they've failed. STN and LTN only attract budget carriers and those airports aren't so easily accessible. LGW only handles BA's low-yielding flights. As soon as an airpine gets the chance, they always jump ship to LHR. SWF is further away and has poor rail connections. It will never be a viable alternative.

In short, the only viable way to increase capacity would be to allow usage of all four runways at JFK at the same time or to build another runway there. No other alternative would work. EWR and LGA simply can't add additional runways.

[bob previdi]

Capacity is a difficult thing to put together. There are many variables.
For example, plane size, runway layout, number of terminals and terminal size.

That said, the capacity of JFk today is somewhat hampered by the proximaty of LGA.
Once NextGen is put in place - JFK will have more control over the airspace and it will likely be able to handle up to 120 movements per hour. In the future, as NextGen is used and the Air Traffic Controllers get use to it, look for more simultaineous take off's and landings. But given the nature of the lay out of the runways (they cross) I'd say a practical goal would be 140 movements per hour. This would lead to about 2200 per day (16 hour day), or 800,000 per year. Now the other thing that is critical is how large are the planes or how many passengers. Currently there is about 100 but Gatwick has about 130 a plane. I would expect that with all the concern over GHG and the desire to get short haul flights onto trains, that this number will increase to - say 150.
800,000 x 150 per plane = 120 million per year - more then double what JFK now handles. This is my view of what the airport is capable of handling using the current runway, terminal and future nextgen ATC. This is all the more reason why JFK Airtrain needs to reach Manhattan - as the Van Wyck simply will not be able to handle this load.